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ISSN 2063-5346
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A Mathematical Model of Cholera Outbreak With Type III Functional Response

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Magdoleen Abdelghani, Mohammed Bakheet, Eihab Bashier, Associate Professor
» doi: 10.48047/ecb/2023.12.10.322

Abstract

Several mathematical models of the Cholera epidemic have been proposed in response to outbreaks in many countries of the world. South Sudan offers the most example of the tragedy that befalls a country and its people when cholera stroked it in the past years. In this paper, we propose a cholera model that describes the disease outbreaks in South Sudan during 2016-2017. We formulated a SIR-type model with a pathogen class, a deterministic mathematical model using a system of ordinary differential equations. We conducted an analysis to verify the positivity and boundness of the model solution, then we conducted an analysis of the existence of both a disease-free and endemic equilibria. The basic reproduction number was computed by using the next-generation matrix approach. The local and global stabilities of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria are analyzed. Also, the model is used to fit the real disease situation of the cholera outbreak in South Sudan, and sensitivity analysis of the key parameters is carried out. Finally, the system of differential equations is solved numerically to show the numerical results.

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